How interesting that a winter storm is moving towards Indiana just in time for Groundhog's Day. The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for late Saturday into Monday morning rush hour.
So, I can see the writings now about the Winter Storm Watch. This is somewhat a different "watch" than in the spring and summer as with Severe Thunderstorm Watch which indicates that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms.
A Winter Storm Watch is meant to tell you to watch out for a Winter Storm during the latter half of this weekend. There is a potential that a significant winter storm can effect your plans this Sunday. There's some big football game - but the day could be full of snow and potentially 6 or more inches of snow! So, WATCH OUT!
From here, the NWS can issue a Winter Weather Advisory which basically is issued if less than 6 inches in a 12 hour period is expected, or less than 8 inches is expected in a 24 hour period. The Winter Storm Warning is issued hen 6 or more inches can cover the ground in 12 hours, or 8 or more inches falls within 24 hours.
Looking at the models, and we have several to lead us in one direction or another, a Low pressure system will travel through central Indiana late Saturday night and Sunday. The first thing we note is that this Low will place parts of areas along and north of I-70 in the favorable northeast quadrant where heavy snow can occur, and also the other favorable area, the northwest quadrant will add more snow.
Some warm air occurs southeast and south of the Low which may bring rain to parts of Indiana south of I-70, which really makes it difficult to pinpoint how much snow will occur across the area.
Therefore, there is some UNCERTAINTY (the word of the decade) to exactly where all this will, ahem, fall out.
Looking a these guidance models indicate anywhere from 4 inches of snow, to a foot of snow in some areas along and north of I-70.
Keep in mind we have at least 5 more times the computer takes the observational data and runs the computer data and produces maps for us to decide how much we'll get.
So, in short - IT IS GOING TO SNOW late Saturday and Sunday. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. The best you can do is be prepared
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